Indeed, in the first case, there was sustained double-digit growth of U.S. M2 from July 1971 until June 1973. During that period, M2 was growing at an average annual rate of 12.5%. That is roughly double the rate of monetary growth consistent with realizing an inflation rate of around 2% per year in the U.S. Not surprisingly, annual headline CPI inflation rose from 3.7% in January 1973 to a peak of 12.3% in December 1974, averaging 8.6% over those two years. Similarly, between January 1976 and December 1978, M2 growth averaged 11.2% per year. This led directly to a second surge of inflation, in which the average rate jumped from 7.6% in 1978 to 11.3%, 13.5%, and 10.3% in 1979, 1980, and 1981, respectively. In short, the surges in inflation that occurred at the same time as the two oil price spikes were already baked in the cake long before the oil crises erupted.
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