Again, we don’t know for sure whether any of this is happening. That may be the scariest part. As long as Polymarket lets anyone bet on war anonymously, we may never know. Last Saturday, the day of the initial Iran attack, Polymarket processed a record $478 million in bets, according to one analysis. All the while, Polymarket continues to wedge itself into the mainstream. Substack recently struck a partnership with Polymarket to incorporate the platform’s forecasts into its newsletters. (“Journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets,” Polymarket posted on X in announcing the deal.) All of this makes the site even more valuable as an intelligence asset, and even more destructive for the rest of us. Polymarket keeps launching more war markets: Will the U.S. strike Iraq? Will Israel strike Beirut? Will Iran strike Cyprus? Somewhere out there, someone likely already knows the answers.
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