Published on 10 March 2026
Here’s the picture Arnott foresees over the next 10 years. Because stocks are so pricey, the dividend yield now sits at a mere 1.2%, way below its contribution in most periods. (The stats are available on RA’s website under “Asset Allocation Interactive.”) As for profits and P/Es, he cites one of the laws governing markets: reversion to the mean. In the RA scenario, earnings will wax at 5.3%, more or less matching their traditional trajectory, less than half the 2016 to 2026 pace. Add those two components, and you get a “plus” of 6.4% a year. That already sounds mediocre. But the big hit’s a shrinkage in multiples that severely reverses the potent upward push that helped generate those 15.5% returns since 2016. Arnott predicts that valuations will shrink by 3.4 points a year, or 40% by 2036. That pressure would reduce today’s P/E of 27.5 to around 17. Although that sounds extremely slender versus what we’ve seen in recent years, it’s more or less the multiple in the boom years preceding the Global Financial Crisis, and close to the 120-year mean.
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